（吉隆坡22日讯）由于营运环境充满挑战，本地市场需求下滑，速远机构（ZHULIAN，5131，主板消费产品股）截至去年11月底第四季，净利大幅下滑56.2%，至1373万5000令吉，上财年为3132万7000令吉。
同时，该公司营业额跌33.5%至7797万3000令吉，上财年为1亿1718万1000令吉。
尽管如此，该公司还是建议派发每股7仙股息。
截至去年11月底全年内，该公司营业额也下滑7.4%至4亿1705万6000令吉；但股票投资获利带动净利，按年微扬3.3%至1亿2101万令吉。
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Zhulian
Corporation Berhad - Woes Up North
Author:
kiasutrader | Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 09:42
Period
4Q13/FY13
Actual
vs. Expectations
FY13
net profit (NP) of RM121.0m (+3% YoY) came in below expectations, accounting
for 88% of our and consensus full-year forecasts of RM137.0m. We were
negatively surprised by the disappointing 4Q13 results, as the variance from
our forecast was due to lower-than expected sales in overseas market, i.e.
mainly Thailand.
Dividends
Single-tier
dividend of 3 sen per share and a special single-tier dividend of 4 sen per
share have been declared, bringing the full-year total dividend to 16.0 sen per
share vs. our projection of 17.9 sen. This implies a net dividend yield of 3.5%
and a dividend payout ratio of 61% of its FY13 earnings. The variance in
dividend projection was in tandem with the missed net profit forecast.
Key
Result Highlights QoQ,
4Q13
revenue decreased by 37%. The key culprit is the softer Thailand market brought
about by the political uncertainties in Thailand and also the fall in Thai Baht
against USD which negatively affected its top and bottom lines. The
longer-than-expected crisis can be seen in the decline in associates’
contribution (-68% QoQ), which is one of their key earning drivers. Meanwhile,
the demand in the Malaysia market stayed on course, but was flat QoQ. Hence,
PBT plunged by 61% to RM18.8m.
YoY,
4Q13
revenue and PBT fell by 33% and 50%, respectively, due to same reason mentioned
above. YoY, FY13 revenue fell by 7% to RM417.1m. The decrease in revenue was
mainly due to lower local market demand, especially during 1H13 attributable to
the tightening of household credit and the sluggish consumer spending. However,
due to a higher associate contribution from Thailand (+8% YoY), the PBT
increase marginally by 3% YoY.
Outlook
While
the near-term prospects appear uncertain for Zhulian, we believe that the
political crisis in Thailand will be short-lived and sales activity should pick
up post the Thailand election.
Minimal
impact should be seen from the recent fuel and electricity tariff hike.
In
the meantime, the company is expanding into the Myanmar market in 1H14 and our
estimates has yet to impute for the new contribution as we are awaiting further
clarity.
Change
to Forecasts
We
are downgrading our FY14-15 net profit estimates by 14% each as we take into
account the lower associate contribution as well as lower CDF growth in Thailand.
Rating
Downgraded to MARKET PERFORM
Valuation
We
are cutting our TP from RM5.40 to RM4.70 based on an unchanged fwd. PER
valuation of 15.8x but lowered FY14E EPS of 29.9 sen. We have already reflected
the main earnings risk from Thailand into our estimates.
Thus,
we left our targeted PER unchanged, as we believe that the Thailand political
crisis would be short-lived and the ascribed PER is still at a 16% discount to
Amway’s 18.7x.
Risks
to Our Call
A
prolonged political crisis in Thailand
A
slowdown of consumer spending in domestic market.
Source:
Kenanga
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